Turkey hot as Spain chills

Turkey looks like being the clear winner among destinations on the German market this year while Spain will have to hope for strong late bookings to save the season. The overall outlook for the German market this year remains difficult to predict.

The summer 2010 season is slowly gathering pace but forecasts remain just as difficult to make this year as in 2009. Bookings have clearly been picking up since mid-December but comparisons to last year remain difficult due to the poor bookings at the start of 2009. Moreover, revenue development is lying behind the rise in bookings due to lower brochure prices for summer 2010 holidays.

 Werner Sülberg, head of the DRV market research committee, said he expects demand to be similar to last year. The key factors are that Germans have sufficient money this year to travel thanks to stable incomes while low unemployment remains low despite the economic crisis. In 2009, the German tourism market saw a 3% revenue decline, which was better than previously feared thanks to strong late sales.

Tour operators are generally holding risk flight capacity stable compared to last summer while remaining flexible to order more seats if necessary. “We have not changed anything regarding the risk mix,” stated Thomas Cook package holidays chief Michael Tenzer. Capacity utilisation risks have largely been transferred from tour operators to the suppliers themselves, and hoteliers in particular are under pressure. In terms of destinations, there is higher demand for the Eastern Mediterranean, especially Turkey and Egypt (each +9%) due to attractive pricing, good products and extensive all-inclusive offers, according to market researchers GfK. “Antalya is gaining a lot of bookings from Majorca,” commented Tenzer. There is again strong growth for the relatively small cruise sector.

Bookings for the Balearic Islands are 11% lower than this time last year, Greece and the Canary Islands are 5% down and the Western Mediterranean has a combined 9% drop. Moreover, Tunisia has a dramatic 25% fall in bookings, while Italy and Bulgaria are down 14%, according to cumulative figures up to the end of January. Long-haul holiday sales are down 3% and overland destinations are 6% lower, according to the GfK figures.